💰Bitcoin: Late Cycle, Not Over.

PLUS: The First Central Bank Crypto Buy Just Happened.

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Let's see what we’ll discuss today:

• 💰 Bitcoin: Late Cycle, Not Over.

• 💰 The First Central Bank Crypto Buy Just Happened.

• ⚡ Cash App plans to unlock stablecoin transactions ’soon’

Estimated reading time: 5 minutes

Crypto Fear & Greed Index

• BTC: $96,153 (-6.79%)

• ETH: $3,138 (-10.39%)

• SOL: $140.37 (-10.14%)

Bitcoin: Late Cycle, Not Over.

Pop quiz — what usually shows up right before Bitcoin goes vertical?

• Whales dumping

• Twitter panic

• People screaming “cycle top”

• And at least one dude posting the 4-year halving chart like it’s the Ten Commandments

Well… we’re checking all the boxes again.
But according to Glassnode?
Relax. This is exactly what happens in every late-stage bull cycle.

Let’s break it down.

1/ The Big Whale Splash 🐋💦

On Thursday, a known whale moved 2,400 BTC (worth ~$237M) onto Kraken.

Cue the panic tweets:
“OG whales dumping!! Cycle over!!”

But here’s the twist:

This isn’t some dramatic exodus.
It’s textbook bull-market profit-taking.

Glassnode’s data shows long-term holder spending is rising steadily — from 12,000 BTC/day in early July to ~26,000 BTC/day now.

Source: Glassnode/X

Not chaos.
Not capitulation.
Just boomers taking profits responsibly for once.

Their words, not mine:

“This is normal late-cycle distribution — steady, not sudden.”

2/ Kronos Research Says: Chill, It’s Not a Top Yet

Kronos Research basically said:

“Yeah, it’s late cycle…
But late cycle ≠ cycle top.”

“Late cycle” doesn’t automatically mean “pack it up, bear market begins in the morning.”

As long as buyers keep showing up, whales can sell all day.
The ship keeps moving.

Plus, on-chain signals aren’t flashing danger yet.
One big metric: NUPL at 0.476, which historically lines up with short-term bottoms forming.

In trader terms:
Buy the fear, but don’t marry the fear.

3/ But There Is One Problem…

Whale selling isn’t scary.
What’s scary is when there aren’t enough buyers to absorb it.

And right now?
Buy-side liquidity is looking… thin.

Not gone.
Just diet mode.
Like the market’s trying intermittent fasting.

Is it a sign of a topping pattern?
Maybe.

Reminder:

• 2017 top: 1,067 days after the bottom

• 2021 top: 1,058 days after the bottom

• 2025 ATH (Oct. 6): 1,050 days after the bottom

On paper?
We might be right on schedule for a cycle peak.

But…

4/ The Halving Cycle Might Be Dead Anyway

The classic 4-year cycle might not matter anymore because:

• ETFs buy whenever flows come

• Corporates buy on treasury schedules

• Institutions don’t care about your halving chart

• New liquidity flows don’t follow crypto memes

These buyers don’t trade cycles. They don’t care about the four-year rhythm.

Basically:
Bitcoin’s growing up, bro.

And that may break the old cycle patterns entirely.

5/ The Bottom Line

What we’re seeing right now isn’t panic.
It’s not 2021 blow-off-top energy.
It’s not OG whales rage-quitting crypto.

It’s:

• Late-cycle profit-taking

• Buyers temporarily chilling

• Macro dictating momentum

• A market that’s maturing (for better or worse)

Could the top be in?
Sure.
Could this be a shakeout before another leg up?
Absolutely.

For now?

The smartest people in the room are saying the same thing:

Don’t mistake normal cycle behavior for apocalypse.

And don’t underestimate Bitcoin’s ability to fake a top, nuke everyone, and then rip to new highs out of pure spite.

Because if there’s one thing Bitcoin loves…

…it’s proving everyone wrong.

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• ZEC: $525.40 (+4.11%)

• SUI: $1.77 (-11.91%)

• LTC: $95.55 (-4.45%)

The First Central Bank Crypto Buy Just Happened.

Okay… we need to talk about something wild.

A central bank — not a hedge fund, not a VC, not a billionaire — just bought crypto for the first time.

The Czech National Bank quietly picked up $1M in digital assets to test a future onchain reserve system.

Here’s the short version:

1/ What they bought
Bitcoin, a USD stablecoin, and a tokenized bank deposit.
Not gambling — a structured test to gain “practical experience” before global finance goes fully onchain.

2/ They’re not all-in… but they’re preparing
They admit this is only a test.
But the governor is already talking about a future where you buy coffee with one tap and investments with another.
That’s not hypothetical — that’s preparation.

3/ They built an innovation hub for this
CNB launched a full Innovation Lab to experiment with blockchain, tokenized assets, and new payment rails.
This is what countries do when they’re gearing up for a digital-first financial system.

And this didn’t come from nowhere.
They’ve been exploring BTC all year, studied its correlations, bought 51,732 Coinbase shares, and even debated a 5% Bitcoin reserve allocation.

Bottom line:
A central bank is now a crypto holder — not for speculation, but because they know the future is digital, tokenized, and onchain.

A small step… but a big crack in the wall.

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DISCLAIMER: None of this is financial advice. This newsletter is strictly educational and is not investment advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any assets or to make any financial decisions. Please be careful and do your own research.