đ°Bitcoin Is Playing Defense â Should You?
PLUS: Altcoin Season on Pause â But Is It Over?
Hello, Smart Investors. This is Smart Money Moves PRO - your actionable info for making money in crypto.
Today we have some interesting topics to discuss:
Bitcoin Is Playing Defense â Should You?
Altcoin Season on Pause â But Is It Over?
Hyperliquid Dominates July Revenue â Solana Loses Ground
Warren Buffett misses $850M in Bitcoin gains
Letâs get started!
Bitcoin Is Playing Defense â Should You?
Bitcoin is showing signs of weakness, failing to reclaim $115,500 on Monday and briefly retesting $112,000 over the weekend. The market is growing increasingly defensive, with BTC options data pointing to a shift in sentimentâbut not outright panic.
Hereâs what the smart money is watching this week:
BTC Options Data Shows Defensive Positioning
Thereâs a notable uptick in demand for downside protection via Bitcoin options:
Put-to-call ratio has climbed to 90%, compared to its usual baseline of 50%âa clear sign that more capital is flowing into neutral-to-bearish strategies.
On Friday and Saturday, this ratio even exceeded 100%, a rare level that typically reflects heightened caution.
At the same time, the 30-day options skew has surged to +7%, its highest level in four months. In normal conditions, this skew ranges between -6% and +6%. When puts begin trading at a premium to calls, it signals that participants are willing to pay extra to hedge against sharp price drops.
Translation: Downside protection is in demandâbut it's mostly precautionary, not panic-driven.
Macro Forces Are Shaping Market Behavior
The recent rise in hedging activity isn't purely technicalâitâs largely macro-driven.
Several key global factors are shaking market confidence:
Import tariffs are back in focus. Companies like Caterpillar are projecting $1.5B in losses tied to U.S. trade policies.
Saudi Aramco, the worldâs largest oil producer, just reported a 19% drop in profits.
Consumer and logistics giants like Kimberly-Clark, UPS, and Carrier Global have all revised earnings forecasts downward, citing rising costs and shrinking margins.
This wave of underwhelming earnings is sparking concerns that the AI-driven equity rallyâcentered around giants like Nvidia and Microsoftâmight not be enough to offset broader economic weakness.
Risk-Off Environment Confirmed by Treasury Yields
Bond markets are confirming what crypto markets are sensing:
The U.S. 10-year Treasury yield has fallen from 4.32% to 4.21% in just a week.
That shift suggests investors are rotating into safe-haven assets, a classic sign of risk aversion.
This kind of macro environment tends to suppress risk-on assets like Bitcoin in the short termâbut it's also a setup for high volatility once uncertainty fades.
Futures Premiums Remain Healthy â No Signs of Capitulation
Despite the caution in the options market, BTC futures tell a different story.
The 2-month annualized futures premium is sitting at 7%, comfortably within the neutral range of 5% to 10%.
Even after the $112,000 retest on Sunday, this premium remained stable, indicating underlying strength and resilience.
If major players were aggressively betting on a breakdown to $110K or lower, weâd see that premium collapse towardâor even belowâ5%. That hasnât happened.
Final Take
The rise in hedging activity is real, but Smart Money isnât calling for a Bitcoin crash. Instead, what weâre seeing is a defensive posture in response to a messy macro backdrop.
Key Levels to Watch:
â ď¸ Support: $112K â losing this could trigger broader selling into the $109Kâ$110K range.
đ Resistance: $115.5K â a clean break above could reset short-term sentiment.
Until one side takes control, expect tight consolidation⌠and prepare for volatility.
Paywall incomingâŚ
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WHATâS LEFT INSIDE? đ
Altcoin Season on Pause â But Is It Over?
Hyperliquid Dominates July Revenue â Solana Loses Ground
Warren Buffett misses $850M in Bitcoin gains
Ok, back to our scheduled programmingâŚ